Tuesday 22 March 2016

Austria, Brazil and Oman Medical Devices Report Q2 2016; New Report Launched

Austria, Brazil and Oman Medical Devices Report Q2 2016

We anticipate that the medical device market will see a CAGR of 2.4% over the 2014-2019 period, which will be below average for the Western Europe region. In keeping with most developed markets, the main growth drivers in the market are the increasing health needs of the ageing population and the search for new technologies to improve patient outcomes and increase health service efficiency.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
  • We forecast that the market will grow at a US dollar 2014-2019 CAGR of 2.4% from USD2.3bn in 2014 to USD2.6bn in 2019. The lower dollar growth rate reflects currency depreciation at the start of the forecast period. This will translate into a 15.3% contraction in the US dollar value of the market in 2015, followed by a return to low growth in 2016 and higher growth from 2017 to 2019.
  • The market is heavily reliant upon imports, which account for over 85% of demand. While we anticipate that imports will continue to rise in euro terms, currency weakness will continue to negatively impact upon US dollar values. Imports fell by 7.4% y-o-y to USD517.3mn in the three months to October 2015 and by 8.1% y-o-y to USD2,065.9mn over the 12 months to October 2015.
  • We expect exports will continue to outperform imports, boosted by rising activity within the patient aids product area, although currency weakness will weigh on US dollar values. Exports decreased by 3.6% yo-y to USD533.4mn over the three months to October 2015. The running annual export total fell to just over USD2.1bn in the 12 months to October 2015, representing a y-o-y decline of 4.4%.
  • Government efforts to curb healthcare expenditure are stimulating an increasing trend towards the adoption of more cost-effective day surgery in Austria, offering up opportunities for manufacturers of minimally-invasive surgery equipment and other day procedure products. The number of day surgeries increased by 87.6% over the 2009-2014 period, according to data released by Statistik Austria in November 2015.


We have revised down our market forecasts on account of the deepening recession, a poor labour market and the ongoing decline in fixed investment. Due to currency weakness the market will contract in US dollar terms for a second year in 2016. We anticipate the tight fiscal framework will further impact on medical device companies, which are already having margins squeezed by an unfavourable exchange rate and higher operating costs.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
  • Market growth in US dollar terms will be constrained by an underperforming economy and a weak currency. We have revised down our forecasts and now project a 2015-2020 US dollar CAGR of 0.9%, which will see the market reach USD4.9bn in 2020. The market will contract further in 2016, before returning to growth in 2017.
  • Imports in US dollar terms will remain hindered by currency depreciation as the real remains in its steep depreciatory trend in 2016. Imports fell by 20.1% in US dollar terms in Q415 and by 15.7% in 2015, taking the annual value down to USD2.6bn.
  • Export growth will be negative in US dollar terms. Exports fell by 7.3% in US dollar terms in Q415 and by 3.6% in 2015, taking the annual value down to USD0.5bn
  • The current drive to further reduce dependence on imported products will face increasing headwinds in view of the country's escalating economic and political problems. Output by the domestic manufacturing industry fell in H215 and the Productive Development Partnership programme appears to be losing momentum with only a single medical device project approved in 2015.


We expect the Omani medical device market to expand by a CAGR of 8.8% to reach USD211.4mn by 2019. Imports account for the majority of the market, as domestic production is limited. Public healthcare sector infrastructure projects are contributing to growth momentum.

  • We forecast that the market will expand by a moderate 2014-2019 CAGR of 8.8%, down from a 2009-2014 CAGR of 12.5%. This should see it rise from an estimated OMR53.4mn (USD138.8mn) in 2014 to OMR81.4mn (USD211.4mn) in 2019. The forecasted slower rate of economic growth over the coming years is due to the decline in oil prices, which will put pressure on the government to rein in public spending. The end of the expansionary fiscal stance pursued over the past decade will also have a negative impact on domestic demand.
  • The market will remain import reliant. The latest collated monthly mirror trade data show that imports to the year ending June 2015 rose by 18.6% to USD138.2mn, compared with the USD116.6mn reported for the period ending June 2014. The performance by product area ranged from 32.4% for dental products to -9.1% for consumables, the only sector to contract. In CAGR terms, imports in the 2009-2014 period rose by 12.5%.

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