Global Prophylactic Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Market to Reach $2.2 Billion by 2022, Reveals New Report

Merck's nine-valent pipeline vaccine V503 offers protection against five additional HPV types not included in current vaccines. Publisher expects this vaccine to be quickly adopted following regulatory approval and subsequent recommendations by national immunization committees. KOLs from across the markets included in this report expected V503 to be widely used, though it was noted that an inflated price, relative to current HPV vaccines, could provide some barrier to uptake.

Publisher anticipates that by 2017, V503 will be the dominant prophylactic HPV vaccine globally and will realize sales of $1.4 billion in 2022 in the 7MM, Australia, and Canada, representing a 95% market share. This market share will largely be as a result of the cannibalization of Merck's existing vaccine Gardasil, of which sales are expected to decline significantly over the forecast period. The only other prophylactic HPV vaccine in late-stage clinical development is a low-cost bivalent vaccine, from Chinese biotechnology company Xiamen Innovax. This vaccine is primarily being developed as a low-cost vaccine for use in the domestic market; as such it is unlikely to have an impact upon the markets included in this report.

 

Publisher estimates that the global HPV market generated approximately $1.7 billion in sales in 2012. This market is expected to experience moderate growth over the next 10 years, with anticipated sales of over $2.2 billion by 2022. This represents a compound annual growth rate of 2.6%. HPV vaccine sales in Canada and Australia are expected to increase at a CAGR of over 9% during the forecast period, driven by the inclusion of males in routine HPV vaccine recommendations. The US is also expected to make a significant contribution to market growth, thanks to a large population and an estimated CAGR of 3%.

    

Key Findings of Report

• A new nine-valent HPV vaccine is expected to be widely adopted following market approval, stealing market share from existing vaccines. However, a high price represents a potential barrier to market access.
• Significant environmental barriers to HPV vaccination exist, which currently serve to limit vaccine uptake.
• The emphasis of HPV vaccination is shifting away from an initial focus on cervical cancer prevention in females, towards prevention of a range of cancers in both males and females.
• The inclusion of males in routine HPV vaccine recommendations will expand the size of the HPV vaccines market.

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