Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) market expected to reach $7.9 billion in 2020, Reveals New Report

Pipeline Entries to Drive NSCLC Market Growth

The Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) market will undergo considerable growth from $5.1 billion in 2013 to $7.9 billion in 2020 at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.6%. The added value will be derived from an abundance of new product launches relatively early in the forecast period. Many of these therapies will target the second line of treatment; both the first-line treatment of patients with non-squamous histology and the maintenance setting will remain relatively unchanged by 2020. New second-line therapies include immunostimulants such as ramucirumab and nivolumab, which have shown clinical benefits, but which will face difficulties due to the increasingly crowded second-line setting. Currently, pharmaceutical treatment is limited to late-stage patients. However, vaccine therapies such as Lucanix (belagenpumatucel-L) will launch in the forecast period, for patients with stage II or IIIA NSCLC, in the currently sparse adjuvant setting. Although vaccine treatments have been unsuccessful so far in NSCLC – the most recent example being GSK’s MAGE-A3 vaccine failing its Phase III trial – Lucanix has shown large improvements to survival rates in its initial clinical trials.

Monoclonal Antibodies to Diversify Squamous Cell Treatment

Over the forecast period to 2020, several new additions to the NSCLC treatment paradigm will transform the treatment landscape. Many of these will be monoclonal Antibodies (mAbs), which instigate an immune response to the tumor rather than directly affecting cancer cells. Crucially, some of these mAbs will be indicated for patients with squamous cell histology, whose current treatment options are very limited and primarily consist of chemotherapy. Squamous cell histology accounts for approximately 30% of the NSCLC population, and pipeline products, such as Yervoy (ipilimumab) in the first-line treatment and nivolumab in the second-line, will add greater diversity to the treatment algorithm, with both having shown clinical benefits in early-stage trials. Access to these premium treatments in this under-represented segment will be one of the primary drivers for growth in the overall NSCLC market.

Efforts are being made to understand the molecular characterization of NSCLC tumors in order to identify cancer-cell-specific targets for therapy, based on the success of targeted therapies Tarceva (erlotinib) and Xalkori (crizotinib). However, novel therapies targeting these molecules, such as Kirsten Rat Sarcoma viral oncogene homolog (KRAS), have so far been unsuccessful in the late-stage pipeline, meaning that the range of mutant signal pathway molecules targeted by therapy will remain largely unchanged over the forecast period and mAb immunotherapies targeting cancer or T-cell antigens will have a much larger impact than small-molecule-targeted signal inhibitors.

Major Patents to Expire Late in Forecast Period

Patents for Alimta (pemetrexed), Avastin (bevacizumab), Tarceva, and Iressa (gefitinib) will all expire between 2017 and 2020. Alimta is a vital therapy for non-squamous patients and is in many cases the preferred course of treatment, combined with cisplatin. Generic availability following patent expiry in 2017 will make non-squamous chemotherapy cheaper, although the market value will ultimately continue to rise despite generic erosion, due to successful pipeline entrants. Tarceva is widely used in first-line Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) positive patients, and generally in the second-line setting. Its patent will not expire until 2020 however, meaning that the effects will not be felt during the 2014–2020 forecast period. Iressa is not widely used, and therefore the patent expiration in 2017 will have little impact.

Early Diagnosis to Remain Uncommon

The vast majority (70%) of NSCLC cases are diagnosed in stage IIIB or IV, at which point surgical resection is not possible, making pharmacological intervention the best course of action. The number of treatment settings for late-stage patients, specifically first-line, second-line and maintenance, adds significant value to the market. Should the number of early diagnoses increase, fewer patients would require extensive chemotherapy or targeted therapy, meaning that the market would decrease. However, improvements to the diagnosis of NSCLC are limited. Identifying Stage I–IIIA tumors remains difficult, despite the identification of high-risk groups, such as smokers. Over the forecast period, the characterization of tumors will likely improve, and more potential biomarkers will be identified. Screening and diagnostic technology will not change significantly over the forecast period however, meaning the number of patients diagnosed in early stages will remain at approximately 30%.

Spanning over 143 pages, “Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Market to 2020 - New Therapies to Enhance Treatment Segmentation and Drive Growth in an Increasingly Competitive Market” report covering the Marketed Products, NSCLC Pipeline, Market Forecast, Strategic Consolidations, Appendix.

For more information visit at:  http://mrr.cm/Z7K